March 2026
When we discuss the climate crisis, the conversation naturally gravitates toward industrial emissions, vehicle exhaust, and deforestation. Yet one of the most destructive forces acting against our planet often flies under the radar: global conflict.
Armed conflicts do more than fracture societies and destroy infrastructure. They magnify climate and air quality harms, creating immediate public health crises and raising the long-term carbon cost of rebuilding. As an expert in climate resilience and circularity, I see firsthand how the immediate deterioration of air quality affects civilians, emergency responders, and the broader climate system itself.
Data from the UNFCCC and the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) suggests a sobering reality. If the world’s militaries were treated as a single nation, they would rank as the fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases globally. It is estimated that military activities account for approximately 5.5 percent of total global emissions.
The Urgent Casualty: Air Quality and Human Health
Let us look at the stark reality of global air quality. Air pollution, both ambient and household, represents one of the most serious global health burdens. According to 2021 data from the WHO and the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, it is responsible for an estimated 6.7 to 8.1 million premature deaths each year. The economic consequences are equally severe. The World Bank estimates that health and productivity damages linked to air pollution amount to roughly US$8.1 trillion annually.
When conflicts erupt, this already critical situation worsens dramatically. Bombings, industrial fires, and the uncontrolled burning of infrastructure release massive amounts of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), black carbon, heavy metals, and toxic gases such as SOx and NOx. To compound the tragedy, conflict zones frequently lose their air quality monitoring networks, creating major data blind spots and leaving humanitarian responders operating with limited information.
The Heavy Carbon Footprint of War
The climate impact of modern warfare is both measurable and significant. Investigative analyses of the Gaza hostilities between 2023 and 2025 conservatively estimated direct combat emissions at around 1.9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). When the enormous task of reconstruction is included, projected emissions rise sharply to between 30 and 40 million tCO2e.
Similarly, multi-year assessments of the Russia–Ukraine war have estimated conflict-related emissions in the hundreds of millions of tonnes of CO2e. In effect, this is comparable to the annual carbon output of a medium-sized nation.
As of March 7, 2026, comprehensive peer-reviewed data on the full climate footprint of a wider Iran–Israel conflict is not yet available. However, the mechanisms of environmental damage are already visible. Localised spikes in PM2.5 and other toxic pollutants have been observed following strikes on energy infrastructure. At the same time, disruptions to Gulf shipping routes are forcing vessels to take longer voyages, increasing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
A Beacon of Resilience: The Visionary Leadership of the UAE
In sharp contrast to the environmental degradation seen in conflict zones, the United Arab Emirates stands as a compelling example of proactive climate leadership and resilience.
Rather than simply setting distant targets, the UAE has made decisive and large-scale investments in renewable energy and clean technologies. These efforts significantly reduce the nation’s exposure to volatile fossil fuel supply shocks. Cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi have prioritised public health through extensive air quality monitoring networks, low-emission mobility initiatives, and sustainable urban planning.
Under the leadership of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the UAE, and the forward-looking stewardship of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai, the nation has moved beyond climate ambition to real legislative action.
This pragmatic and forward-thinking approach is anchored in Federal Decree-Law No. (11) of 2024 on the Reduction of Climate Change Effects. The UAE Climate Law is widely viewed as a regional milestone. It strengthens national measurement, reporting, and verification requirements and establishes a clear regulatory pathway for private sector compliance. By shifting from voluntary pledges to enforceable legal frameworks, the UAE has created a governance structure capable of supporting a stable and credible low-carbon transition.
Why We Must Not Lose Hope: Aligning with SDG 17
The intersection of conflict and climate change is deeply concerning, but it is not inevitable. There is still reason for hope.
History shows that societies can rebuild in ways that are smarter, cleaner, and more resilient. Achieving this requires strong alignment with United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 17: Partnerships for the Goals. Through multilateral financing, technical cooperation, and open data sharing, the global community can support fragile regions while linking immediate humanitarian response with long-term climate adaptation.
The UAE’s combination of strong federal policy, clean energy investment, and active middle-power diplomacy demonstrates how national leadership can help catalyse global action. Through stronger monitoring systems, the protection of low-carbon infrastructure, and collective international resolve, meaningful progress is possible. The tools already exist to protect air quality, save lives, and guide a sustainable recovery.
A Call for Global Partnership: Aligned with SDG 17
While the data on conflict-driven pollution is sobering, we must not lose hope. The path forward is illuminated by Sustainable Development Goal 17: Partnerships for the Goals. No single nation can address the climate–conflict nexus alone.
Dr Samiullah Khan reflects on this challenge:
“Sustainability is not a destination, but a journey of collective accountability. By aligning our local laws with global standards, we can turn the tide of despair into a wave of innovation.”
The UAE’s experience shows that through circular economy principles and rigorous air quality management, economic growth can be decoupled from environmental harm.
Our Next Steps Together
The international community must advocate for the mandatory reporting of military emissions within the UNFCCC framework and prioritise what is increasingly called green peacebuilding. By leveraging technology, transparency, and international cooperation, we can confront these challenges more effectively.
The UAE has already demonstrated what strong leadership can achieve. The blueprint exists. The responsibility now lies with the global community to follow through.
Dr Samiullah Khan is available for advisory collaboration on climate resilience, air quality monitoring, and circularity in fragile contexts.
Primary Source Links (Publicly Cited)
World Health Organization – Household and ambient air pollution fact sheet (2021)
https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air-pollution-and-health
Institute for Health Metrics & Evaluation – State of Global Air / GBD summaries (2021/2022)
https://www.healthdata.org
World Bank – Air pollution economic analyses
https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2022/09/01/what-you-need-to-know-about-climate-change-and-air-pollution
UNFCCC – National reporting, technical guidelines and adaptation/mitigation syntheses
https://unfccc.int
IRENA – Renewable energy deployment and energy transition reports
https://www.irena.org
UNEP – Post-conflict environmental assessments and rapid environmental assessment guidance
https://www.unep.org
Conflict & Environment Observatory (CEOBS) – Environmental impacts of conflict and military emissions reporting
https://ceobs.org
Selected reporting on Gaza and Ukraine conflict emissions and rebuilding climate costs
DownToEarth – coverage on Gaza emissions estimates (searchable on downtoearth.org.in)
The Guardian – reporting on war impacts and climate analyses (theguardian.com)
UAE Federal Decree-Law No. (11) of 2024 summaries and analysis
https://sustaingulf.org/uae-climate-law/
